BABA JAMAL’S SHOCK SLUMP! HAJIA AMINA’S POLL EXPLOSION ROCKS AYAWASO EAST NDC PRIMARY

BABA JAMAL’S SHOCK SLUMP! HAJIA AMINA’S POLL EXPLOSION ROCKS AYAWASO EAST NDC PRIMARY

The Ayawaso East NDC parliamentary primary has exploded into a dramatic two-horse race after stunning new polling data revealed a massive collapse for one political heavyweight and an equally dramatic rise for his main challenger.

Fresh numbers from Global InfoAnalytics have thrown the contest wide open, turning what once looked like Baba Jamal’s comfortable lead into a fierce survival battle against the surging Hajia Amina Adams.

FROM COMMANDING LEAD TO FREE FALL

Just weeks ago, Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed looked untouchable.

An earlier Global InfoAnalytics poll conducted between January 6 and 10, 2026, showed the former Deputy Minister and Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria cruising ahead with 47 percent support among all voters, leaving Hajia Amina Adams trailing at 32 percent.

Even within the NDC base, Baba Jamal appeared firmly in control, commanding 46 percent support compared to Hajia Amina’s 34 percent.

But fast forward to early February and the political tide has turned sharply.

The final poll conducted between February 4 and 5 paints a brutal picture for Baba Jamal. His support among all voters has nosedived to 32 percent — a crushing 15-point drop. Among NDC voters, his numbers also shrank from 46 percent to 34 percent, marking a 12-point collapse.

HAJIA AMINA RIDES A POWERFUL SYMPATHY WAVE

While Baba Jamal’s numbers were tumbling, Hajia Amina Adams was staging what insiders are calling one of the most dramatic political comebacks in recent constituency contests.

Her support among all voters skyrocketed from 32 percent to 58 percent — an eye-popping 26-point surge. Among NDC voters, she surged even higher, jumping from 34 percent to 61 percent, representing a staggering 27-point leap.

Political watchers say her rise has been powered by strong emotional connection with voters, particularly following controversies surrounding discussions about Islamic widowhood practices, popularly known as Iddah.

WHEN RELIGION MET POLITICS — AND BACKFIRED?

Ayawaso East is heavily Muslim, with polling data indicating about 74 percent Muslim voters and roughly 72 percent identifying with Sunni Islam. However, the constituency is widely viewed as socially moderate rather than strictly conservative.

Many voters reportedly interpreted repeated political discussions around the Iddah issue as an attempt to target or pressure the widow candidate. That perception appears to have triggered a strong sympathy reaction in her favour.

Polling insights suggest nearly 43 percent of Hajia Amina’s supporters are backing her largely because of how they believe she has been treated during the campaign battle.

A CLASH OF POLITICAL STYLES

The unfolding race now reflects two sharply different campaign narratives.

Baba Jamal represents political experience, administrative exposure, and national-level visibility. But critics say his campaign may have underestimated the emotional pulse of the constituency.

Hajia Amina, on the other hand, has transformed personal tragedy into political momentum, connecting strongly with grassroots sentiments and community empathy.

DELEGATES HOLD THE FINAL CARD

With five aspirants cleared to contest, the NDC delegates are voting today to decide who leads the party into the upcoming by-election. But despite the crowded ballot, political attention has narrowed almost entirely to the high-stakes duel between Baba Jamal and Hajia Amina Adams.

The other contenders — Mohammed Ramme, Yakubu Azindow, and Najib Mohammed — remain in the race, but current polling suggests the spotlight remains fixed on the two front runners.

DATA VS GROUND GAME

While polls suggest momentum is clearly shifting, seasoned party insiders warn that delegate-based primaries often produce surprises. Internal alliances, constituency structures, and last-minute mobilisation could still reshape the outcome.

Yet one message from the Ayawaso East contest is already ringing loud across Ghana’s political landscape — voter emotion, perception, and real-time data are becoming as powerful as traditional political machinery.

As ballots are cast today, Ayawaso East is not just choosing a parliamentary candidate. It is witnessing a political showdown where sympathy, strategy, and survival are colliding in dramatic fashion.